GEOPOL (TM) Geopolitcs, Economics and Ideas

New Paradigm in the Iranian Crisis
By Pedro Cardoso
GEO-POL SENIOR ANALYST

Iran responded to the US / EU / UN demand on its uranium enrichment. It was a very complicated document designed to spread dissent amongst Washington’s allies. Shortly after that, the deadline expired without much change in diplomatic stance from Teheran.

The US/EU have proposed “a menu” of sanctions, which, taken as is will be utterly useless. Iran CANNOT be embargoed because the world needs its oil supplies. An Iraqi-style embargo first needs a military victory. And the Iranians carefully prepared a response to that idea also.

The Military Response:

Iran has made it more than obvious that Hezbollah’s victory is an Iranian victory. If hostilities were to erupt between Israel and Iran, Hezbollah would be a significant actor in the conflict. That was the message to Israel.

On the day Iran submitted its response, the Iranian Navy (with some special forces) took control of a Romanian off-shore oil rig. They were purposely overreacting to a commercial dispute with Romania’s GSP. It sent jitters to the oil market immediately. The implications were obvious. Iran is willing and able to use its Navy to interrupt the oil market. That was the message to the UN.

" Iran test-fired 10 surface-to-surface short-range missiles on Sunday, a day after it launched a series of large-scale military exercises throughout the country, state-run television reported. The Saegheh missile had a range of between 50 and 150 miles, the report said. It did not specify whether the missile was capable of carrying a nuclear warhead, but it was not believed to be.

State-run television said the missile was built based on domestic know-how, although outside experts say much of the country's missile technology originated from other countries." CBS

Officials said the missiles were successfully tested in the Kashan Desert, about 250 kilometers southeast of the capital, Tehran.
They said the new surface-to-surface Iranian-made Saeqeh (Lightning) missile has a range of between 80 and 250 kilometers and can evade radar systems. Iran News

Over the weekend, Iran engaged in one of its largest military exercises in years. Coded “The Blow of Zolfaghar (Imam Ali’s famous double tipped sword)”. The most interesting part of the exercise was the testing of surface-to-sea missiles. Without knowing if Iran has purchased Russian Sunburns, its possible that these home-developed missiles have similar technology. If that’s the case, the exercise demonstrated the vulnerability of any Navy sitting in the Persian Gulf. That was a message to the United States.

The Political Response:

Iran brought up Iraq in a few verbal confrontations this last week. Accusations were sent back and forth between Iran and Iraq over the issue of who is supporting the “sectarian violence” (read civil war). The culmination came when the US announced that “it got the message”. US general William Caldwell (top US military spokesman in Iraq) announced to the media: "there is nothing that we definitively have found to say that there are any Iranians operating within the country of Iraq,". Although a double-edged play, plunging Iraq into chaos would hurt the White House more than it would hurt Teheran. That was the message to the United States.

While these arguments flared in Iraq, Iran made sure to announce its position in the Arab Street. Without reminding Muslims of who was FOR Hezbollah and who was AGAINST (mainly Saudis, Egyptians and Jordanians), Iran made the statement that they were ready to meet ANY threat from Israel. A position which NO ONE in the region could state (or would dare to state). That was the message to the Arabs.

Iran was very quick to pour money into Lebanon. An Israeli general went so far as to urge the international community to put a stop to it. Without spending one cent on weapons, Iran is able to purchase influence in Lebanon like never before. At the same time, Teheran announced a new system of “air mines” which it claims can be deployed at low and high altitudes. Iran was so bold as to claim that no air-force in the region could be capable of confronting the Iranian army. (This excluded the United States of course). That was the message to Israel.

Conclusion

Overall, the diplomatic effort to pressure Iran failed. Even if sanctions are imposed, they will be useless. China and Russia have already excluded themselves from the sanction regime. The Bush administration has no incentive to make a deal and can't extend itself too much beyond Iraq. Europe depends on Iranian natural gas and oil (specially after the Russian / Ukrainian fiasco) so they won't rock the boat too hard. Israel is now weathering an internal struggle that may culminate in a "round two" against Hezbollah; for Tel Aviv, the road to Teheran runs through Southern Lebanon, and its presently well defended.

There is a chance that Iran will voluntarily stop enriching uranimum simply as a delay tactic. Its likely that if Iran offers such a concession, (purposely AFTER the deadline), Europe will jump on such a diplomatic opportunity thus causing renewed friction with Washington.

Internally, (because Iran would do this AFTER the deadline), it would seem as if the move is detached from Western pressure.

For now, Iran seems to be sticking to its position, even after the new "discovery" by the IAEA of a different strain of highly enriched uranium. Will this help or hinder negotiations?

The most obvious concern is that where diplomacy fails, military options surface. As they say, war is nothing more than failed diplomacy

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