GEOPOL analysis
Wednesday Sep 22 2004

by Pedro Cardoso

Why Iran will have the bomb sooner than we think!

The last time the US actively interfered in Iran it was the largest democracy in the Middle East. Come to think of it, it was exactly what Bush professes to want for Iraq today. A stable, prosperous, Democracy; set as an example to the whole region. Unfortunately, the United States opted to overthrow it and put in its place the now famous Shah of Iran; one of the worst dictators in the region at the time. So when the Iranians hear the US claim that Iran is a threat to the region, they take offense to that.

From Iran’s point of view, the writing is on the wall. The United States is a direct, real and present danger to them. But, it seems like dismantling all weapons programs will NOT protect them from an American offensive. It certainly didn’t protect Iraq. On the other hand, to develop and test a nuclear weapon, like Pakistan did; that seems to draw all sorts of respect and good will. Soon after going nuclear, Pakistan received loans, military support, and a direct line to Washington. North Korea, too, seems to be able to defy the US with every breath and somehow hide securely behind its new arsenal. So, considering the options, Teheran has actually made a clever move. For now, Iran has opted to meet half way.
According to the Non-Proliferation Treaty, participant countries can possess all the ingredients to build a nuclear weapon, (as long as they promise to build power plants instead). With all ingredients in-house, Iran can now build a nuclear weapon if it chooses, (and so can Japan, Australia, Brazil, Argentina, and a handful of others.)

Even though that is perfectly legal, it is ideologically not acceptable to the United States and Israel. Even though many other countries have the ingredients but promise not to build bombs; the US and Israel simply don’t believe the Mullahs promise. Both nations are accusing Iran of secretly developing nuclear weapons and have threatened to pre-emptively strike Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities (even though it was the United States who first helped Iran to develop nuclear technology). The reason is that, according to Washington and Tel Aviv, Iran’s leadership is of such an extremist nature, that if they did have these weapons, they would surely use them – especially against Israel. Of course, this character profile is being drawn by the United States, who stands as the only nation to actually use these weapons on men, women and children – twice; and by Israel, a nation who actually has secretly developed nuclear weapons. So it’s understandable that this reasoning falls on deaf ears in Europe and the rest of the Middle East. But today, it seems like those countries are irrelevant at the Security Council, and Iran knows that very well. Iran, for now, chooses only to have the ingredients. But pushing it over the brink won’t take much.

Iran will most likely go nuclear because the international treaty that keeps it from nuclear weapons has been made irrelevant by the United States itself. Boldly breaking all previous pacts, the US had decided to research and develop new nuclear weapons. The United States has emphasized the irrelevance of international treaties over and over again. The ABM treaty was broken; the safeguards of the UN Security Council were bypassed. The United States will make Iran go nuclear, simply because it offers no other option. If Iran caught a glimpse of a window of non-confrontation, it would take it. Non-confrontation and engagement works, it’s at work right now. Pakistan, a country ideologically opposed to both Israel and the United States, has been turned around not with an invasion or a bombing campaign, but with money and diplomacy. The finger on their nuclear trigger doesn’t hate America. How complicated is it to show the same policy towards the country that was once Bush’s dream for the Middle East?

Pedro Cardoso

---Supporting Articles -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

U.S. signals it may not rule out attack on Iran
12 Sep 2004 12:01:33 GMT
Source: Reuters
JERUSALEM, Sept 12 (Reuters) - A senior U.S. envoy said on Sunday the United States was determined to stop Iran getting atomic weapons, and signalled Washington would not rule out an attack if peaceful diplomacy failed to achieve this.

.. "President Bush is determined to try and find a peaceful and diplomatic solution to the problem of Iran's pursuit of nuclear weapons," he said. "But we are determined that they are not going to achieve a nuclear weapons capability."
Iran says it is not trying to build an atom bomb and its nuclear programme is only for peaceful purposes.

But intelligence officials told Reuters in Vienna earlier this week they estimated it would take Iran a few months to a year to become nuclear capable -- meaning Tehran would be able to build a nuclear bomb without importing technology or experts. [Oh, here’s the problem, Iran COULD become if they wanted to!]
As Iran's arch-enemy, Israel has particular fear of Tehran developing nuclear arms. Israel is presumed to have its own atomic arsenal, but has a policy of neither confirming nor denying that.
…Iran on Sunday rejected European demands it abandon sensitive nuclear activities but reiterated its readiness to provide assurances that its atomic ambitions are entirely peaceful.
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/L12505553.htm

Iran nuclear weapons ambition still unproven

13:13 02 September 04

NewScientist.com news service

International inspectors have found no clear evidence that Iran is developing nuclear weapons. But there are important questions that still need to be answered, they say.
A report of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA's) latest investigations in Iran has removed some of the suspicions that have surrounded the Islamic republic's nuclear ambitions.
"The report does not reveal a smoking gun," says a spokesman for the UK Foreign Office. "But it highlights a number of issues on which Iran has still to convince the IAEA that it is doing what it says it is doing."
http://www.newscientist.com/news/news.jsp?id=ns99996350

Israeli military warns of Iran's plans
Herzlliya, Israel, Sep. 12 (UPI) -- Israel's top soldier indicated Israel would consider what to do about Iran's nuclear program unless the world stops it.
http://washingtontimes.com/upi-breaking/20040912-024406-7500r.htm

IRAN: UN inspectors report no evidence of nukes
http://www.greenleft.org.au/back/2004/598/598p15.htm

No proof for Iran's nuke program
http://www.dailytexanonline.com/news/2004/09/13/Opinion/No.Proof.For.Irans.Nuke.Program-716627.shtml

US plan for new nuclear arsenal

Secret talks may lead to breaking treaties

Julian Borger in Washington
Wednesday February 19, 2003

The Bush administration is planning a secret meeting in August to discuss the construction of a new generation of nuclear weapons, including "mini-nukes", "bunker-busters" and neutron bombs designed to destroy chemical or biological agents, according to a leaked Pentagon document.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/usa/story/0,12271,898550,00.html

By the mid-1970s, Iran initiated a nuclear power program with the assistance of the United States, but the 1979 revolution ended all nuclear efforts until 1984, when Iran embarked on an extensive fuel cycle research and development program.

…Article IV of the NPT allows state parties of the treaty to use nuclear technology for peaceful purposes and to cooperate with other states in this regard. However, Iran's plans for building a civilian nuclear power program have prompted much concern among some Western countries, in particular the United States. Iran's development of nuclear fuel cycle facilities capable of enriching uranium—potentially to weapons grade-and producing and separating plutonium, has no apparent economic justification, although Iran insists it is pursuing a nuclear program for energy production only. Many countries are concerned that Iran is misusing Article IV of the NPT to obtain and develop technologies and materials for a clandestine nuclear weapons program.
http://www.nti.org/h_learnmore/npttutorial/chapter05_iran.html

CIA and Defense Intelligence Agency war-games have predicted unfavorable consequences of a U.S. pre-emptive strike on Iran's nuclear facilities.
http://feeds.bignewsnetwork.com/?sid=fc379756280447ba

War-Gaming the Mullahs
The U.S. weighs the price of a pre-emptive strike
Sept. 27 issue - Unprepared as anyone is for a showdown with Iran, the threat seems to keep growing. Many defense experts in Israel, the United States and elsewhere believe that Tehran has been taking advantage of loopholes in the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and is now within a year of mastering key weapons-production technology. They can't prove it, of course, and Iran's leaders deny any intention of developing the bomb. Nevertheless, last week U.S. and Israeli officials were talking of possible military action—even though some believe it's already too late to keep Iran from going nuclear (if it chooses). "We have to start accepting that Iran will probably have the bomb," says one senior Israeli source. There's only one solution, he says: "Look at ways to make sure it's not the mullahs who have their finger on the trigger."
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/6039135/site/newsweek/

Israel's 'bomb in the basement'
DIMONA, Israel (CNN) -- Israel's nuclear reactor was built with the help of the French more than 40 years ago near the town of Dimona in the Negev Desert.
Nuclear experts say it's the cornerstone of Israel's nuclear arsenal -- where the plutonium is produced for a nuclear program that Israel has never confirmed and never denied.
http://edition.cnn.com/2004/WORLD/meast/04/21/israel.vanunu.vause/

Operation Ajax (1953) (officially TP-AJAX) was an Anglo-American covert operation to overthrow the freely elected democratic Government of Iran and Iranian Prime Minister Mohammed Mossadegh.
Excuses for the deposing included Mossadegh's socialist rhetoric and his nationalization of the oil industry which was previously operated by the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company. Both of these led to accusations that he was a Communist and suspicions that Iran was in danger of falling under the influences of the neighbouring Soviet Union. The principal reason for the coup was an oil deal whereby the UK and the US divided Iranian oil while giving minor pieces to Dutch and French interests.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Ajax

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