A recent sequence of separate attacks may suggest an adaptation in tactics that span from Baghdad to Beirut. But the reality is that Israel is no longer engaged in a "hostage situation" in Lebanon. To go back to the beginning one must briefly take into account a similar incident in Iraq. Operation Lightning, (a massive operation designed to clear Baghdad of insurgents), seemed to have been derailed by the capture of two US servicemen. Within hours of the capture, both media attention and massive military efforts were quickly drawn away from the operation and concentrated solely on the recovery mission. Weeks later, Hamas crossed the border into Israel and captured an Israeli soldier. Some speculate an adaptation of strategy in order to draw attention.

Palestinian militants from the Gaza Strip infiltrated Israel through a tunnel early Sunday, lobbing grenades and bombs at a military outpost and killing two Israeli soldiers and seizing a third. Link

A burned Israeli humvee that was part of a convoy attacked by Hezbollah guerillas where two Israeli soldiers were captured, is seen on a road between Zarit and Shtula in northern Israel, on the border with Lebanon, Wednesday, July 12, 2006Link

It's at this point that Hezbollah may have miscalculated their ability to influence ongoing operations as well. Maybe imitating the Iraqi model that 'derailed' Operation Lightning, Hezbollah opened up a "second front" in northern Israel in the middle of the Gaza raid (called Operation Truthful Promise). Internally, Hezbollah leader Hassan Narsallah first informed the Lebanese Government of what he was about to do. In his estimation, the 'issue' of Lebanese prisoners seemed only resolvable if Hezbollah had something to exchange. At the time, Hamas was asking to exchange their prisoner for Palestinian women and children jailed in Israel (and had successfully brought attention to that issue worldwide). Hassan Nasrallah: "I told them [Lebanese Government] that we must resolve the issue of the prisoners, and that the only way to resolve it is by abducting Israeli soldiers."

It's at this point that a quick escalation of hostilities took the conflict beyond a hostage situation. Rumor has it that Israel made a quick aggressive push across the Lebanese border hours after the capture (probably trying to catch the prisoners in transit). Confusing stories have emerged that an Israeli Merkava tank was immediately destroyed along with some other vehicle and some personnel. It's very possible that Hezbollah hit the tank with an advanced anti-tank missile (Syrian donated Kornet or KONKURS), Iran is known to produce them, and its potential deployment in Iraq (through Syria) was feared by the Americans in Iraq. The fact is that the Israeli incursion was stopped. Israel immediately covered the area by air and took out some bridges in South Lebanon, probably with the same mission in mind; to cut off the transfer of prisoners. Up to that point, all IDF maneuvers were in line with a prisoner rescue.

Kornet Anti-tank missile

Until Hezbollah missiles started flying into Israel.

The moment artillery missiles landed on Israeli towns, the conflict in Northern Israel stopped being a hostage situation and became a reaction to Hezbollah's fire. Israel switched strategy and began to target the organization as a whole.

Israel may have had a pre-arranged plan for taking out Hezbollah as well. If one considers that the first step in confronting the extremist group was the ousting of Syrian troops from Lebanon; then Israel seemed to be somewhat on schedule.

(Israel no longer faces 28,000 Syrian troops on Lebanese soil; Hezbollah's military protection is gone. It's assumed that Israel will take the opportunity).

Israel cannot leave Hezbollah in its current status quo, especially after the group surprised everyone by first reaching Haifa and then deploying an Exocet against the Israeli Navy. From Israel's point of view, Hezbollah is a direct threat to Israel and will get stronger as time goes by. The surprising buildup of weapons and defense in a mere six years is enough motivation for Israel to change their security situation in the North. Hezbollah, on the other hand, seems to have taken the initiative by purposely raising the stakes with missiles against Northern Israel.

The Hezbollah Surprise The Israeli Navy was actually caught off guard. There was no intelligence on Hezbollah possessing such missiles: "Rear Admiral (lower half) Noam Feig, admitted that the navy had not had intelligence information regarding Hizbullah's possession of C802 missiles and, therefore, had not activated the ship's missile defense system against such types of missiles." YNews Coupled with the surprise at the number of artillery missiles and their range to Haifa, Israel was put into a position that required a direct military confrontation with Hezbollah. "The power and sophistication of the missile and rocket arsenal that Hezbollah has used in recent days has caught the United States and Israel off guard, and officials in both countries are just now learning the extent to which the militant group has succeeded in getting weapons from Iran and Syria." IHT

Israeli missile boat "Hanit" hit by Exocet variant Artillery rockets reach Haifa

Hezbollah drone Mirsad 1 Link "However, Israeli air power as a panacea has been shattered. The Israeli army has been stunned by the failure of Israel's air war against Hezbollah, which has shrugged off massive air bombings on its headquarters in Beirut and also maintained its rocket war against the Jewish state. The air force learned that lesson in Beirut as fighter-jets sought to destroy Hezbollah headquarters. Officials acknowledged that 23 tons of munitions failed to penetrate the thick walls of the underground command headquarters constructed by Iran. Today, Israel's advanced technology has been unable to detect, let alone stop Hizbullah assaults. Moreover, Israeli military officials acknowledge that Hezbollah quickly developed methods to penetrate Israel's C4I [command, control, communications, computers and intelligence] border system, based on advanced sensors and heavy air surveillance. U.S. analysts were also impressed by the conversion of Soviet-origin munitions into Hezbollah weapons meant to terrorize civilians. They said Syrian-origin 220 mm rockets had some of their explosive payload replaced by ball bearings. In other cases, cluster bombs were attached to rockets in an effort to increase civilian casualties. In addition, Hezbollah has learned how to disable cameras and exploit blind spots to cut through the border fence and attack Israeli military positions. They said this was how a small Hezbollah force attacked an Israeli border post on July 12 and abducted two soldiers, igniting the current clashes". Evening Bulletin

The Israeli Challenge

Hezbollah is well prepared for asymmetric warfare

Once engaged in a full confrontation with Hezbollah, the new Israeli administration had first to prove its capacity to the Israeli public. The air strikes on known Hezbollah targets provide the public with immediate results. But the reality is that even Israel's intelligence has limits. Everyone knows that Hezbollah hides its assets amongst the public. Most people living in the south ARE the Hezbollah Map. They are Shiites who suffered under Christian and Israeli occupation and revolted through the Shiite Hezbollah. Rockets are hidden in their villages and in their fields. Many Hezbollah offices and weapons are also stashed in basements of apartment buildings and civilian housing facilities in other major cities. Israel's challenge is to target needles in a huge civilian haystack.

At the same time, Israel must have a plan. The declared mission objective, at face value, seems impossible to achieve:

1. The arbitrary return of the captured soldiers (impossible without an exchange for something)
2. The ceasing of rocket fire into Israel (a defacto disarming of Hezbollah)
3. A third-party force taking over the border effectively (in other words, the deployment of a new army that can impose its will on Hezbollah by force of arms)

Outside of a full occupation of the whole country, the most viable plan (and the only way to stop Hezbollah rockets from reaching Israel) is to create a buffer-zone in South Lebanon that pushes their range north. Most likely Israel will first attempt to do just that (the public demands it):

The only way that such a buffer zone is possible, is if the IDF takes it with ground forces. It must then either fully occupy it, or cede it to a trustworthy third party. If they advance only to destroy rocket stockpiles and then retreat, Hezbollah will easily be re-supplied from Syria.

Israel, for the first time, is forced into a war on the enemy's schedule and in their territory. (The Israeli army usually goes around fortifications; it never plans on attacking through prepared defenses). The Israelis are seeing themselves in a small two-front war. On in the North is a front against Hezbollah, and one in the South against Hamas.

Ironically, Hezbollah may actually benefit from this situation.

Hezbollah's Built in Advantage

The truth is that Hezbollah has always straddled two ideologies that actually kept them in check. On one side, (under Syrian supervision on the ground), they cooperated with a secular pro-Syrian strategy. The Syrian vision for the Middle East does NOT include an independent Palestinian state. According to Syria, Lebanon, Jordan and Israel were torn out from them by the British and the French, ideally, they want it back and an ambiguous status for Palestine actually works in their favor.

On the other hand, Iranian ideology promises a restoration of religious-based governments in the region. Iran wanted to replicate the Islamic Revolution when it created "The Party of God" - (Hezbo-Allah) when Israeli occupied Lebanon in 1978. This ideology is religious in nature and shuns the secular Syrian vision for the Middle East. Iran wants a definable Islamic victory in Palestine against Israel. Ironically, many nations (including the European Union, don't consider Hezbollah a terrorist group.)

When Syria was pushed out of Lebanon, they took their ideological influence with them.

Without Syrian "supervision", Iran's ideology won out (but immediately found competition for relevance with the Sunni Hamas government). A strange dynamic is at play here. If Iran is to promote a Shiite rebirth, both in Iraq, and by challenging the Saudi position; it has to put the Sunnis into an ideologically indefensible position. Iran is very interested in discrediting the Sunni status quo as a viable ideological solution for the Middle East. Iran would like to show Saudi Arabia (Mecca) as a puppet for the West which ignores the Arab Street. They would like to solidify their position with Iraqi Shiites and they want to show the region that Iran is a credible player in the affairs of the Palestinians.

Syrian troops leave Lebanon Link

When Hamas took the stage in the Middle East, Hezbollah struggled to stay involved and promote their interests in the Palestinian outcome. Actually, in light of the "Cedar Revolution" Hezbollah was sliding into irrelevance. Perhaps taking a clue from the Iraqi abduction, and certainly with intention to get involved in the Palestinian issue publicly, Hezbollah took action; and this time with a unified ideology. (One could even argue that the Lebanese crisis diverts international attention away from the Iranian nuclear crisis).

From a military point of view, the Hezbollah operation actually makes sense:

- They chose to attack when Israel was engaged with Hamas
- They've been preparing for a ground war with Israel for years, (as proxies for Syria and Iran).
- They are in a position to inflict substantial damage to Israeli troops during the invasion and afterwards during the occupation (like the Iraqi insurgency)
- They don't need to win, just survive. Hezbollah tends to gain influence when fighting Israel, and if they survive, will emerge as the only organized group in Lebanon which will shatter the "Cedar Revolution".

Tactics

14 soldiers killed in one day, toll mounts link

Hezbollah will force the Israeli army to attack head-on against well-prepared bunkers supplied by a network of tunnels. It's possible that the guerrilla group will pull back and regroup further North to extend Israeli supply lines and increase their vulnerability. It's also rumored that they've held back on using sophisticated anti-aircraft missiles until the ground offensive. As long as rockets are fired into Israel, the IDF is forced to continue its campaign. After ten days of bombing and several incursions into Lebanon, only two small border towns were manageable and Hezbollah declared its resources to be "intact" - the rocket barrage continued. At one point a rocket fell per minute for two hours in Israel.

"They are unable, up until this moment, to do anything to harm us, and I assure you of that," he said. "Hezbollah has stood fast and absorbed the strike and now is going to initiate and will deliver surprises that it promises. We keep other things for ourselves that we'll do later on." Link

The truth is that Hezbollah is damaged by the air strikes.That's why they're raining rockets on Israel. First because of the "use-it-or-lose-it" rule, second because they rather engage the IDF sooner rather than later. As long as the air strikes continue, their defenses and arsenal will be slowly destroyed.

But Hezbollah's built-in advantages are starting to show. Israel cannot continue the air strikes indefinitely. Although they certainly degrade Hezbollah's defenses, they are costing too much politically in collateral civilian damage. The United States, in full support of the Israeli operation, delayed a cease-fire to allow Israeli pilots time to hit Hezbollah (while internationally managing the political damage it causes every day). Unfortunately, the US had previously excluded itself from the Palestinian affair, and thus has lost political currency in the process. The pictures coming out of Beirut didn't help either. Hezbollah is better suited for a war of attrition. It can re-supply through Syria, it has prepared the terrain for a protracted defense and has the morale and stamina to endure guerrilla campaigns (after all, they've done it before). The first two towns just inside the Lebanese border were scenes of intense fighting with Israeli soldiers taking unusually high casualties. The IDF is certainly not dealing with a Palestinian-style affair. Althought the Israeli public overwhelmingly approves of the operation; if casualties begin to mount, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert may face growing pressure to change his tactics. Ideally, the IDF would wait until the air strikes deplete Hezbollah sufficiently - but the rockets keep falling, thus demanding immediate action; ready or not.

Lebanese soldiers and civilians check the damage to an ambulance that was hit during an Israeli airstrike in Zahrani, in southern Lebanon.Link

The Wider Conflict

Israel will have to move carefully on Hezbollah. It's important that they isolate the group from re-supply without interacting directly with Syria. Although a few strikes have hit the Syrian border, both Israeli and Syrian officials quickly denied confrontation; a clear sign that no one wants to engage for the time being. The reason is: Iran, has openly declared that they would come to the aid of Syria which would instantly convert the conflict into a regional war.

Israeli Prime Minister Olmert has overtly tried to connect Iran to the Hezbollah operation. It's not hard to see that Israel and Iran are engaged in a regional cold war, but one must wonder if Tel Aviv is really trying to expand the Lebanese mission to Tehran.

Everyone knows that Hezbollah is directly connected to the Iranian government, but at this point, the question is if the Lebanese conflict has been synchronized by Iranian intelligence. Its one thing to give 50 million Euros a year to the organization and its civil infrastructure, a whole other issue if MOIS is actively coordinating " Operation Truthful Promise".

The United States is currently engaged in an emerging civil war in Iraq (over 2000 dead per month, that's called a civil war for all effects). If Iran perceives an Israeli attack on their nuclear electric plants, they will consider it a proxy strike directed by Washington. Their response could include directly targeting US troops in Iraq; striking Israel's clandestine nuclear weapons at Dimona; or worst of all, mining the Strait of Hormuz or blocking it with cruise missiles.

Washington is not keen on engaging Iran just yet, that's why it's assumed that the Israelis have been "advised" to tread carefully in regards to Syria. At the same time, Condoleezza Rice has repeated the American position on the Lebanese conflict, no cease fire until Hezbollah is rendered ineffective; "a lasting cease-fire" as its called.

This leaves Israel in a complicated situation. The air force cannot take out Hezbollah without huge civilian casualties. The IDF cannot sit and wait while rockets land on Israeli cities. Syria may be "untouchable" for now and therefore open to re-supplying the guerrillas with weapons and a safe haven.

This may take some military tactical ingenuity and Israel has always been known for that.

It's expected that the IDF will initially bog down in South Lebanon, but will eventually send strike teams deep into the country to cut off supply lines. The road to Damascus hasn't been hit yet (to let refugees out), when it IS hit, expect that to be an indication of the Israeli encirclement operation. Once the South is isolated from the world (and its cameras) and all civilians are assumed to be gone, expect the use of heavy weapons to clear those bunkers (air-fuse bombs). An indication of success will be silent skies over Israel.

Analysts need to watch for the following items:

1. An open attack by Israel on Syrian soil
2. The bombing of the road to Damascus
3. Hezbollah striking Tel Aviv
4. The building of a UN / international force that Israel would trust
5. An aggressive move from Hamas

Israel will look to effectively isolate Hezbollah and deprive it of land from which to launch missiles. In doing so, Hezbollah may actually launch on Tel Aviv if they're in possession of Syrian Scud-Bs (see above). One of the many 'surpises' promised by Narsallah?

The Israeli public, as supportive as they are of the IDF mission, will not accept an occupation / insurgency similar to Iraq. A third-party will have to administer the buffer zone.

And finally, Hamas may take some sort of action in retaliation for the imprisonment of their elected officials.

Regardless of the outcome, both Israel and the United States won't come out of this with any more friends in the region. Israel will be seen as taking advantage of a hostage situation to pre-emptively strike at Hezbollah and Hamas as it always wanted to. The United States will only solidify the view on the Arab Street that it stands behind Israel against the Arab world. A serious destabilizing factor may be that as Sunni pro-Western dictatorships stepped out of the conflict; the majority of the Arab public actually rallied in support of Hezbollah. By staying silent, these Arab leaders only distanced themselves from their own public. Expect old wounds to re-open.

Graphic run by British newspaper The Independent

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