GEOPOL Analysis and Forcasting
Essays on current events...


The Surge - Is the New Plan Working? - by Pedro Cardoso
Wednesday, November 27th 2007
As the year comes to a close, demands for accountablility on President Bush's new plan for Iraq start to surface. It's been almost a full year since the White House laid out "The New Way Forward", its vision for success in Iraq . Now that the election is near, the plan's performance may seriously influence political outcomes in 2008.

Integral to its success, was the establishment of a secure environment in order to allow for political development to take place. That security plan came to be know as a "surge" in troop strengh. Today, we refer to it simply as The Surge.
MORE


New Paradigm in the Iranian Crisis - Analysis by Pedro Cardoso
Friday, September 1st 2006
On the day Iran submitted its response, the Iranian Navy (with some special forces) took control of a Romanian off-shore oil rig. They were purposely overreacting to a commercial dispute with Romania’s GSP. It sent jitters to the oil market immediately. The implications were obvious. Iran is willing and able to use its Navy to interrupt the oil market. That was the message to the UN.
MORE

Storm Rising over Lebanon - Analysis by Pedro Cardoso
Tuesday, July 25th 2006

It's at this point that Hezbollah may have miscalculated their ability to influence ongoing operations as well. Maybe imitating the Iraqi model that 'derailed' Operation Lightning, Hezbollah opened up a "second front" in northern Israel in the middle of the Gaza raid (called Operation Truthful Promise).

MORE



Iraq Beyond the Fog - Analysis and Forecast
Monday July 18 2005

Regardless of the reasons why the United States invaded Iraq, one thing is certain, American commitment has not faltered. This is true even after a recent leaked memo which showed US plans to dramatically reduce troops in Iraq by early 2006. Do not be alarmed, from above the fog, this makes strategic sense.

MORE




The Iraqi Elections - Analysis and Forecast
Jan 28 2005

The Shia faith has its “Jerusalem” in Najaf. The reason is because Mohamed’s daughter married Ali – and Ali thought he would be the natural successor to the Prophet in leading the Islamic faith. That didn’t happen, he was assassinated in Kufa (many people in the Middle East remember the Iraqis as the ones who killed the Prophets son-in-law). The Shia think of Ali as the true leader of Islam and they think the Sunnis killed him in order to change what God had ordained. Their most sacred site is Ali’s mosque in Najaf, Iraq.

MORE

Even Who will most likely win the US Presidential election? - A GeoPol prediction
Wednesday October 6 2004

To have a better perspective on the November Presidential election of 2004, we must first look at another election which had similar comparisons; Reagan in 1984.

Reagan was the incumbent president being challenged by a liberal Democrat. Just like George W. Bush, Reagan was strong in his ideology, was obviously adventuresome in his foreign policy, and likewise described as simple-minded by his opponents. Just like John Kerry, his challenger (Walter Mondale) was a US Senator.

Reagan won.

MORE



Why Iran will have the bomb sooner than we think! - Analysis
Wednesday Sep 22 2004

Even though many other countries have the ingredients but promise not to build bombs; the US and Israel simply don’t believe the Mullahs promise. Both nations are accusing Iran of secretly developing nuclear weapons and have threatened to pre-emptively strike Iran’s civilian nuclear facilities (even though it was the United States who first helped Iran to develop nuclear technology).

MORE



Looking Beyond the Ossetia Hostage Incident
Sep 8 2004

During Soviet rule, Ossetia was divided between Russian Ossetia (known as North Ossetia) and Georgian Ossetia (South Ossetia), although both were under the economic and military influence of the USSR, their ethnic divisions lay quietly under the surface. Just like in Kosovo, history has left its marks. Although Constantinople did spread it Christian / Roman culture through the region, by the time the Tartars and the Mongols had come through, a distinctive Muslim population had settled.

MORE



Truth-First Casualty of War - Analysis by Josh Rugema
March 2003

The truth, as they say, is the first casualty in war. This has never been brought home more clearly than in the present war [2003]. All the major Western news organizations, the ones that hector us relentlessly about the divine mission of journalism, have thrown all principle out of the window by allowing their coverage to be sensationalized.

MORE

GEOPOL Events
Wednesday meeting coming up...
_________________________________________
Thursday January 14th 2008

GEOPOL.tv launch
GEOPOL.tv (TM) is a community for political junkies, philosophers and thinkers. We fully believe in the Market of Ideas and invite like-minded individuals to come and share your thoughts. You must be approved to join, but we value everyone's opinion.
geopol.tv

Thursday October 4th 2007
BURMA Discussion: Event by Provocate.org, video donation by GeoPol.
Plural Societies, US foreign policy-shapers, students and refugees from Burma, and concerned Hoosiers to discuss the current situation. Video montage and slide shows.

Download video (18MB)
32 E Washington Street, Indianapolis
3:30 pm

Wednesday October 11oth 2006
GeoPol sponsors showing of the movie "Last Best Chance" at Big Car gallery:

7:30 pm
Big Car Gallery MAP


TRAILER
Imagine if Richard Lugar had decided to become a film producer instead of a senator. That's what you get with "Last Best Chance" a chilling account of a debated reality: CAN NON-STATE ACTORS GET THE BOMB (Referring to "Al Qaida").

GeoPol will be providing the opposing viewpoint to Matt Martin of the Stanley Foundation and Don Kraus of Citizens for Global Solutions. What if the idea of "Al Qaida" getting the bomb depends on a nation-state delivering it first? What if the notion that "Iran would use the bomb if they had it" is an invented phobia? WHAT IF PROLIFERATION ACTUALLY CREATES STABILITY?
Join us at Big Car on Wednesday!! MORE

SEE THE VIDEO of the event


Wednesday September 2oth 2006
Meeting with political analyst Pierre Atlas
9:30 pm
Geo-Pol Situation Room


Pierre Atlas has emerged as one of the most thoughtful voices on foreign affairs in Central Indiana. An assistant professor of political science at Marian College, Pierre is also director Marian's Franciscan Center for Global Studies. He also writes a bi-weekly opinion column for the Indianapolis Star and a monthly online column for RealClearPolitics.com. Pierre visits GeoPol to discuss current affairs and to speak "off the record" on his recent trip to Israel and Cuba.
More about Pierre Atlas MORE

See quick video of us discussing the definition of terrorism with Pierre Atlas VIDEO


Sunday April 9st 2006
Dinner with Iraqi Reporters
5:00 pm
Geo-Pol Situation Room


This project will introduce participants to aspects of journalism as currently practiced in the U.S. and to the profession’s role in contributing to the strength of American civil society. It will provide insight into journalistic methods employed in the U.S. and to the issues that confront the visitors’ American counterparts. As a supplemental theme, it will also offer examples of organizations and individuals who are active in human rights causes and in promoting inter-ethnic understanding.

Geo-Pol will host a private dinner with the Iraqi delegation.


Thursday April 6 2006
Informal discussion with Consul General Barukh Binah

A member of Israel’s Foreign Service since 1979, Consul General Barukh Binah has held various positions in diplomacy, research, policy planning, and media relations.
From 2001 - 2005, he has served as the Head of the International Affairs Bureau in the Center for Political Research of the Foreign Ministry.

The informal discussion included issues such as Israel in 2050, the future of the West Bank and the Palestinian State. All discussions were held off the record.



Saturday April 1st 2006
US in the World WORKSHOP
9:00 am
Citizens for Global Solutions

SEE QUICK VIDEO OF OUR MISSION STATEMENT

Informatics and Communications Technology Complex, IUPUI

A one-day training class that provides necessary background on how Americans think about global issues and help translate specific foreign policies into publicly understandable language.
INFO

Wednesday March 15th 2006
GEOPOL SITUATION ROOM
9:00 pm

Laura Engelbrecht, Former Political Officer, U.S. Embassy in the Democratic Republic of Congo

She is working on a documentary about child soldiers of Congo for the History Channel. She comes to Indianapolis for a speech at the Indiana Council on World Affairs. We have invited her to the GeoPol Situation Room afterwards. Have your questions ready. (Thank you John Clark for arranging this meeting) 

Watch a quick VIDEO of our meeting

You can find out more about her and her collaboration with Angenlina Jolie on the Holocaust Museum web exhibit “Ripples of Genocide” by clicking below:



March 7th 2006
INDIANA COUNCIL ON WORLD AFFAIRS
Pedro Cardoso of GeoPol talks about Brazil as part of the ICWA's Great Decisions series

After decades of economic volatility, Brazil is finally enjoying steady growth, despite a political scandal surrounding the administration of President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Will Brazil continue on course toward stability? What impact will the scandal have on Brazil's economy, on its South American neighbors and on the U.S.?
When: Tuesday March 7 -- registration at 7:00, program runs 7:30-9:00 PM
Where: Butler University, Pharmacy Building
MORE


Watch the VIDEO REPORT

Jan 28th 2006
GEOPOL SITUATION ROOM
Meeting with Thomas Barnett on Iran


Discussion of military options for both the US and Israel in the event of a nuclear Iran.

We analysed flight paths, potential options, military counterstrikes and political implications. Thomas Barnett was very forthcoming in his analysis. Many thanks to John Clark and the Sagamore Institute for making this possible.

Tom Barnett: "After all that we go to local bar where we participate in meeting of Geopol, a local virtual think tank of young professionals, scholars and students who get together and discuss geopolitics. There we got an excellent presentation on possible military strike options against Iran and debated the utility and feasibility of such approaches. Really quite cool." BLOG

(See photos in our Photo section)
See quick video here

View our analysis map below:

ANALYSIS MAP

INDY
Check out the upcoming Geopolitical Events happening in Indianapolis
Indianapolis Events

Thanks IndyBuzz

Featured Project


Coming soon
Iraq Outside the Wire

After a full tour of duty in Iraq, GeoPol member Greg Keele gives us a unique perspective of the Iraqi reconstruction mission. He was assigned to train Iraqi troops and was stationed "outside the wire" at an Iraqi base.

Greg will present a speech to the Sagamore Institure (SIPR.ORG) in which he will analyse the Iraqi Mission from street level. He draws his insight from "living the mission"

Scheduled for June 9th at The Sagamore Institute (SIPR.ORG)
2:00 PM

PRIVATE EVENT

Geo-Pol team members preparing for speech


Speech (video soon)
Link to presentation file

Download NOW Greg's Radio Interview:
Part I
Part II
Part III
Part IV
Part V

New Project coming soon
Geo-Pol Strategy Analysis

A comprehensive analysis flow designed to take ideas from thought to finish.